Every hunting blog in the West has a version of the same story. Point floors are rising. The units you want are getting harder to draw. The gap between where you are and where you need to be keeps widening, and every year you accumulate a point the break point moves a point further out. Percival has written that story too. It's real, it's documented and the data backs it up.
But Percival recently spent time looking at the other end of the dataset. Instead of cataloging which floors were rising fastest across our three-year window of draw data (2023–2025), he looked at what was going in the opposite direction: which floors were flat, which were falling, and which had dropped significantly enough to warrant attention.
The answer, across roughly 2,000 hunt codes with sufficient data spanning all five states covered by The Tag Prospector's draw odds reports, is that the picture is not uniform. A meaningful subset of hunts, some of them on units with real reputations, showed declining point floors over the three-year window. Some dropped a few points. Some dropped substantially. A handful dropped so dramatically that the numbers deserved a closer look before trusting them outright.
This isn't a feel-good piece about how point creep isn't real. It's a data piece about what the less-discussed end of the spectrum actually shows, and what a hunter with 3 to 12 points in the bank can do with that information when application season is open.
Why Some Floors Actually Drop
Point creep is a supply-and-demand problem. When applicant pressure grows faster than tag supply, the floor rises. When that relationship inverts, for any reason, the floor softens. Three mechanisms drive most falling floors worth paying attention to:
Quota increases. The most straightforward explanation: more tags issued, same applicant pool. State agencies adjust tag numbers annually based on herd surveys, post-season assessments, and management targets. When a unit gets more tags, hunters who were sitting just below the old floor may find they can now draw. A quota increase of even a handful of tags on a unit with 30 total permits can shift the floor by two or three points.
Applicant pool contraction. Units that lose popularity (because of a bad harvest season, access changes, fire or drought impact on the hunting experience, or simply because the hunting community's attention moved elsewhere) can see their floors soften as fewer hunters compete for the same tags. No additional supply required. A unit doesn't need more tags to become more drawable; it just needs fewer people chasing the same ones.
Season and weapon structure changes. Adding an archery season, splitting a rifle season, or adjusting weapon restrictions redistributes pressure across multiple hunt codes for the same species and area. A new or restructured season may absorb some of the competition that was previously crowding a single hunt code, lowering the effective floor on both. Weapon types that fall out of broader favor (muzzleloader in some states, archery in others) can see floors ease simply because the pool of hunters choosing that weapon for that species has thinned.
A Note Before the Data
A falling floor is not automatically a quality signal. Some units in this dataset are dropping for structural reasons that have nothing to do with hunting opportunity. Late or leftover season codes in Colorado, for instance, carry lower pressure by design. CWMU (private ranch) units in Utah can reflect individual ranch quota decisions that move year to year with less predictability than public-land draws. And Nevada's floor methodology carries a specific caveat that Percival will flag when the data warrants it.
Use this as a prospecting tool, not a buying signal. A dropping floor tells you the competitive picture changed. It doesn't tell you why, and it doesn't speak to herd quality, access, or what you'll actually find when you get there. Cross-reference with success rates, current regulations, and unit-level data before committing your points.
The floors shown here are resident point minimums for Utah, Colorado, and Arizona, and NR preference pool floors for Wyoming. Nonresident hunters in most states face a separate tag allocation with typically higher floors. The trend direction is still a valid signal: if a floor is falling for residents, it's generally falling in the NR pool too, but the specific numbers will differ for NR applicants. Wyoming residents draw big game by random lottery and don't accumulate preference points, so Wyoming's data is NR-only throughout.
State by State: Where the Floor Went Down
Utah is where this story is cleanest. The state's bonus point system for limited-entry hunts produces consistent, reliable floor data year over year, and the 2023–2025 window shows several notable decreases on hunts that are not obscure.
| Hunt | Species / Weapon | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB3175 — Nebo/San Pitch Mtns, Early Rifle Bull Elk | Elk / Rifle | 25 | 24 | 21 | −4 |
| EB3508 — Chimney Rock CWMU, Bull Elk | Elk / Rifle | 22 | 16 | 14 | −8 |
| DB1333 — 5s CWMU, Buck Deer | Deer / Rifle | 18 | 9 | 9 | −9 |
| EB3180 — Fillmore/Pahvant, Late Archery Bull Elk | Elk / Archery | 7 | 2 | 3 | −4 |
| DB1103 — Morgan-South Rich, Muzzleloader Buck Deer | Deer / Muzzleloader | 8 | 4 | 3 | −5 |
| EB3086 — Fillmore/Pahvant, Muzzleloader Bull Elk | Elk / Muzzleloader | 22 | 20 | 19 | −3 |
The standout here is EB3175, the Limited-Entry Early Rifle Bull Elk season on the Nebo/San Pitch Mountains. This is not an obscure unit. Nebo/San Pitch has a well-established reputation for quality bull elk, and the rifle floor sat at 25 bonus points in 2023. By 2025 it had eased to 21. Three years of steady decline, not a single-year blip. That's not a floor collapse, but it's a measurable softening on a hunt that hunters holding 20–21 points should be running the actual current draw odds on before assuming it's still out of reach.
EB3508 (Chimney Rock CWMU Bull Elk) shows a larger move: from 22 points in 2023 down to 14 in 2025. CWMU floors can reflect individual ranch quota decisions that shift year to year, so treat this with more caution than a public-land draw, but a floor drop of eight points on a quality CWMU unit is a signal worth investigating for hunters in the 14–16 point range.
On the archery and muzzleloader side, EB3180 (Late Archery Bull Elk, Fillmore/Pahvant) dropped from 7 bonus points to 3 over the window, the kind of move that takes a hunt from "a few more years" to "this season might be real" for an archer holding 3–5 points. Similarly, DB1103 (Muzzleloader Buck Deer, Morgan-South Rich) dropped from 8 to 3. A muzzleloader hunter with modest Utah points should look at what current applicant numbers look like on this hunt before passing it by.
Colorado's draw is a pure preference system through 2027, which means falling floors here carry genuine weight. There's no random component providing a floor of access regardless of points. If the floor drops, something real changed in the competitive balance for that hunt.
The archery deer and elk categories are where most of the downward movement lives in the Colorado data, and that's worth understanding before drawing conclusions about the broader state picture. Colorado archery deer and elk draws have seen participation shift in recent years as the hunting public has gradually updated its understanding of what OTC archery options remain available. Hunters who were applying for limited draw archery units partly because they underestimated OTC access have in some cases redirected their applications, softening the draw floors on certain limited archery hunts as a result.
| Hunt Code | Species / Weapon | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DM010O1A — GMU 010 Archery Buck Deer, S1 List A | Deer / Archery | 10 | 6 | 5 | −5 |
| EM851O1R — GMU 851 Archery Bull Elk, S1 List R | Elk / Archery | 17 | — | 13 | −4 |
| EM851O2R — GMU 851 Archery Bull Elk, S2 List R | Elk / Archery | 17 | 15 | 15 | −2 |
| DM002O2R — GMU 002 Archery Buck Deer, S2 List R | Deer / Archery | 13 | 10 | 9 | −4 |
| AM011O1A — GMU 011 Archery Buck Antelope, S1 List A | Pronghorn / Archery | 13 | — | 9 | −4 |
GMU 010 Archery Buck Deer (DM010O1A) is the most significant single-unit story: from 10 preference points in 2023 to 5 in 2025, a consistent year-over-year decline. For a resident archery deer hunter with 5 points, this is a hunt that now belongs in the "run the actual odds" category rather than the "not yet" pile.
GMU 851 Archery Bull Elk (codes EM851O1R and EM851O2R) dropped from 17 points toward the 13–15 range. On a pure preference system like Colorado's, a four-point decline on an archery bull elk unit is a real signal. Archery hunters building toward this hunt should look at current applicant data before assuming the floor is still at its 2023 level.
One broader Colorado note worth making here: the 2028 draw overhaul (Colorado's approved transition to a 50/50 split draw) changes the entire calculus. When that system takes effect, half the tags on most draws go into a random pool open to everyone, regardless of points. Hunters who are currently discouraged by Colorado's pure preference structure may want to revisit their strategy before 2028 arrives. Our Colorado 2028 draw overhaul guide covers how to position yourself ahead of that change.
Arizona produced some of the most dramatic floor movements in the dataset, and a few of them require honest context before anyone starts redirecting their bonus points based on a single data row.
| Hunt | Species / Weapon | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit 05B — Buck Pronghorn | Pronghorn / General | 30 | 30 | 6 | −24 |
| Unit 04A — Buck Pronghorn | Pronghorn / General | 28 | 30 | 6 | −22 |
| Unit 01 — Antlerless Elk (HAM) | Elk / HAM | 10 | 7 | 1 | −9 |
| Unit 05A — Bull Elk (General) | Elk / General Rifle | — | 7 | 2 | −5 |
| Unit 05B — Bull Elk (General) | Elk / General Rifle | — | 7 | 2 | −5 |
| Unit 27 — Antlered Mule Deer | Deer / General | — | 12 | 5 | −7 |
The two Arizona pronghorn units (05B and 04A) showed floor drops of 24 and 22 points respectively, landing from near-maximum difficulty down to single digits in a single year. On face value those numbers suggest a near-complete depressurization of two premium pronghorn units. More likely: quota or draw structure changes in 2025 reshuffled the competitive balance in a way that compressed the bonus pass floor dramatically in one year. A single-year swing of that magnitude on units that were previously at max-difficulty warrants a direct check of current applicant pool data before treating them as reliably accessible. The direction is worth noting. The magnitude may not be stable.
The more straightforward Arizona stories are in the elk columns. Unit 01 Antlerless Elk (HAM: Arizona's Handgun, Archery, and Muzzleloader season) dropped from 10 to 1 bonus point over the window. Three consistent years, not a one-year event. For a muzzleloader hunter who has been building Arizona bonus points for two or three seasons, antlerless elk in Unit 01 is now at near-zero-point accessibility. That's a real hunt that exists right now for hunters who weren't on its radar.
Units 05A and 05B Bull Elk (general rifle) dropped to 2 bonus points in 2025, accessible for almost any hunter who has been applying in Arizona for more than a year. Unit 27 Antlered Mule Deer dropped from 12 to 5 points. Arizona's 3-pass draw structure means even a hunter with zero bonus points participates in Passes 2 and 3 on any hunt. On a hunt whose bonus pass floor has dropped to 2 or 5, the difference between having those points and not having them has narrowed considerably.
Wyoming's data requires a frame reset before any numbers mean anything. Wyoming residents don't accumulate preference points. They draw big game by random lottery. The entire dataset for Wyoming in this analysis reflects what's happening in the nonresident preference pool only: the top 75% of NR tags that go to the highest NR preference point holders.
When the NR preference pool floor drops, it tells a story about nonresident demand. NR hunters are either applying in smaller numbers for that hunt, or the NR tag allocation increased, or the composition of the NR applicant pool shifted. Whatever the mechanism, a falling NR preference floor means hunters with modest NR point totals are now closer to the competitive break point than the previous year's data suggested.
| Hunt Area | Species | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area 078 — Any Elk | Elk / Any Weapon | 8 | 7 | 3 | −5 |
| Area 058 — Any Elk | Elk / Any Weapon | 17 | 18 | 12 | −5 |
| Area 054 — Any Elk | Elk / Any Weapon | 15 | 17 | 10 | −5 |
| Area 117 — Antlered Mule Deer | Deer / Any Weapon | 14 | 7 | 8 | −6 |
| Area 063 — Any Elk | Elk / Any Weapon | 12 | 5 | 6 | −6 |
Area 078 Any Elk is the most striking NR story in the dataset: from 8 NR preference points in 2023 down to 3 in 2025. For a nonresident elk hunter holding 3–5 points, this is a hunt that moved from a few years away to a legitimate current-year draw candidate. Area 117 Antlered Mule Deer dropped from 14 NR points to 8, a hunt that previously required significant NR accumulation now sitting in mid-range NR territory.
Area 058 and Area 054 Any Elk both dropped 5 points over the window, though both show a mid-year increase in 2024 before dropping in 2025, worth noting as a caution against reading a single downward year as a locked-in trend. The 2025 floor is what matters for current applications, and both are substantially lower than 2023.
One Wyoming mechanic worth keeping in mind: the NR random pool (25% of the NR tag allocation) is always open to all nonresident applicants regardless of preference points. If the preference pool floor is softening, that's an improvement on the preference side. The random pool odds don't change based on point levels. They're always there. Understanding how both pools work together is covered in depth in our random draw strategy guide.
Nevada's data carries an important caveat built into how the floor was calculated. Unlike Arizona and Utah, Nevada doesn't publish a direct "drawn out at" field. The floors here represent the lowest bonus point tier at which any tag was issued in a given year, which works well on higher-quota hunts but can swing year to year on low-quota draws based on a single outlier tag. A muzzleloader unit showing a 15-point single-year floor drop may be genuinely depressurized, or it may have issued one tag to an anomalous applicant.
With that caveat clearly in frame, Nevada's archery pronghorn story holds up across multiple hunt codes and is consistent enough to take seriously:
| Hunt | Species / Weapon | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV-111to114 — Pronghorn Archery | Pronghorn / Archery | 7 | 2 | 0 | −7 |
| NV-041-042 — Pronghorn Archery | Pronghorn / Archery | 6 | 3 | 0 | −6 |
| NV-076-077-079-081-091 — Pronghorn Archery | Pronghorn / Archery | 5 | 0 | 0 | −5 |
| NV-043to046 — Pronghorn Muzzleloader | Pronghorn / Muzzleloader | 6 | 1 | 0 | −6 |
| NV-111to115 — Elk Muzzleloader | Elk / Muzzleloader | 4 | 3 | 1 | −3 |
Three separate archery pronghorn hunt codes across different Nevada units all dropped to a floor of zero over the three-year window. That kind of convergence across multiple hunt codes is hard to dismiss as methodology noise. It suggests a genuine shift in archery pronghorn demand in Nevada. For a hunter with zero Nevada bonus points (or a hunter who lost points to Nevada's two-year lapse rule and is rebuilding), archery pronghorn in multiple units is now accessible at the lowest possible point level.
Nevada's draw mechanics work differently from preference point states. Every hunter is in a single random pool, with points squaring your entry count rather than securing you a spot in a tiered queue. A floor of zero doesn't mean guaranteed success; it means the hunt draws from a fully mixed pool including hunters with substantial stacked entries. But it does mean the draw is open to you regardless of where you are in your Nevada point-building journey.
Understanding how Nevada's squared-entry system creates a different kind of point pressure (not exclusion, but probabilistic disadvantage) is covered in our larger point creep breakdown by state.
Three Questions to Ask Before Redirecting Your Points
A falling floor is the start of an investigation, not the end of one. Before committing points to a hunt based on a downward trend, Percival runs three questions:
Point creep is a real problem and Percival doesn't intend to paper over it. The units that are getting harder to draw are getting harder to draw, and the data doesn't lie about that direction any more than it lies about the opposite.
But the story Percival sees hunters tell themselves: that every relevant hunt is locked behind an ever-rising floor, that the only move is to keep accumulating, that the data is one long story of diminishing access. That story isn't what the full dataset says. It's what the part of the dataset most hunters look at says. The other end of the ledger exists. It's smaller. The opportunities are less famous. But they're real, they're documented, and for a hunter with a modest point total and a willingness to look at units that aren't on every forum thread, they're worth prospecting.
The richest veins aren't always where everyone's already digging.
Where to Go From Here
If any of the units above are within your current point range, the next move is to pull current draw data (applicant counts at your specific point level, tags issued, odds at each tier) before the application deadline arrives. Published floor trends are a starting point. Current applicant pool depth is what tells you whether the opportunity is real this year or still a few seasons out.
That's exactly what the Tag Report is built to show you: your personalized draw picture, filtered to your state, species, and exact point total, with point creep trend data alongside the current draw odds. If you're trying to decide whether one of these softening units belongs on your application this season, the report gives you the specific numbers to make that call: not the general trend, but your actual odds at your actual point level.
For a broader framework on how falling and rising floors fit into a multi-state application strategy, including how to assign each state a role based on your current point position. The western draw strategy guide maps that out in full.
Where To Find Us
Frequently Asked Questions
Which western states have hunts where point floors are dropping?
All five states in The Tag Prospector's dataset (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming) have hunt codes where floors declined over the 2023–2025 window. The causes vary: quota increases, applicant pool contraction, and weapon season restructuring all contribute. Nevada shows a consistent archery pronghorn story across multiple units. Wyoming has notable NR elk and mule deer areas. Colorado, Arizona, and Utah each carry units with multi-year downward movement.
What causes a hunting unit's point floor to drop?
Three main mechanisms drive most falling floors worth paying attention to: quota increases (more tags issued to the same applicant pool), applicant pool contraction (fewer hunters competing for the same tags, often due to access changes, herd disruption, or shifting hunter attention), and season or weapon structure changes (new or restructured seasons that redistribute pressure across multiple hunt codes). A quota increase is generally the cleanest signal. Applicant contraction requires more investigation. Find out whether something changed about the unit's quality, not just its popularity.
How do I know if a falling point floor is a real opportunity or a one-year anomaly?
Look for consistency across the full data window, not just the net delta. A unit that dropped steadily over three years is telling a different story from one that dropped the same amount in a single year against a flat baseline. On low-quota hunts, a single tag issued to an outlier applicant can produce an atypical floor reading for that year. The most confident opportunities in this dataset show steady year-over-year movement in the same direction. Also cross-reference harvest success rates: a lower draw floor is only meaningful if hunters who draw are finding animals. The Tag Report shows draw floors, draw odds at your specific point level, and harvest success data together so you can evaluate all three before applying.
⛏ See Where Your Points Actually Stand
Personalized draw odds reports for WY, UT, CO, AZ, and NV, filtered to your points, your species, your state. Know your real odds, including point creep trends, before the application deadline hits.
Get Your Report — $9.99 Grab the Free Guide First