Most hunters plan around one number: draw odds. How competitive is the application? How many points does it take? Those questions matter, but they're only half the picture. The other half is what happens after you draw: how often do hunters who get that tag actually fill it?
Hunter success rate is state-reported harvest data: the percentage of licensed hunters who killed an animal during a given season. It's collected every year across all five western states, broken down by unit and species. And with some regularity, it surfaces combinations that are genuinely surprising. Some hunts have expected payoffs higher than the draw pressure would suggest, and a few are the opposite.
Draw results are back. If you drew, the question shifts to what your tag is actually worth. If you did not draw, there is more to work with than most hunters realize. The Zero to One Report maps every realistic hunting opportunity at zero and one points across all five states: leftover draw windows, OTC seasons, and first-come-first-served tags. Free, no email required, and it lives on the main page. Either way, the metric most hunters skip is hunter success rate.
This post covers standout units from two seasons of harvest data (2024 and 2025) across Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada. Tables show both years side by side with a year-over-year change column. A minimum hunter threshold filters out statistical noise. A unit with 12 hunters and 100% success does not tell you much. A unit with 400 hunters at 60% does.
Elk
The gap between states on elk success is significant. Wyoming's average across units with meaningful hunter counts is around 41%. Colorado's is closer to 24%. That gap doesn't mean Wyoming is always the better hunt; it reflects the different character of the two states' elk populations, seasons, and hunt types. Worth keeping in mind when you're comparing tags across state lines.
Arizona is an outlier in any honest discussion of elk success rates. The state manages its elk hunts with very limited permit numbers and long, flexible seasons, which produces harvest rates that would look implausible anywhere else. Several Arizona elk hunts came in at or near 100% in 2024: that's not a fluke, it's by design.
| State | Unit | 2024 | 2025 | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Unit 1, 2B & 2C — General Bull | 100% (183) | 86% (207) | ↓ −14 pts | High-point NR draw; premium season |
| Utah LE | Mt. Dutton | 95% (22) | 72% (25) | ↓ −23 pts | Notable 2025 drop; small sample both years |
| Wyoming | Rochelle Hills (Unit 113) | 87% (140) | 87% (401) | Stable | NE Wyoming; 2025 sample nearly 3× larger |
| Utah LE | Central Mtns, Manti | 79–86% (22–115) | 74–81% (23–122) | Mixed ↓ | Multiple weapon seasons; rifle season softened in 2025 |
| Wyoming | Pine Ridge (Unit 122) | 82% (380) | 74% (392) | ↓ −8 pts | High sample size; reliable figure |
| Wyoming | Powder Rim (Unit 124) | 82% (198) | 82% (270) | Stable | Southwestern WY; held steady in 2025 |
| Nevada | Units 111–115 | 75–81% (53–59) | — | — | NV's top elk zone; 2025 data unconfirmed in SSA |
| Wyoming | Black Thunder (Unit 123) | 77% (380) | 61% (436) | ↓ −16 pts | Largest WY drop in dataset; watch 2026 |
| Colorado | GMU 002 | 64% (168) | 66% (181) | Stable | High for CO; northeast corner |
| Colorado | GMU 040 | 60% (518) | 55% (545) | ↓ −5 pts | High sample; consistently above CO average |
| Colorado | GMU 061 | 56% (1,296) | 50% (1,384) | ↓ −6 pts | Largest sample in dataset; north-central CO |
A few things worth noting in the elk data. Nevada Units 111–115 combining 75–81% success with moderate draw pressure is a real opportunity: if you have 7–12 non-resident points in Nevada, this zone is in range and the success rate is on par with premium Wyoming units. Colorado GMU 061 at 56% with 1,296 hunters is probably the most reliable single data point in the table: that sample size makes the number meaningful in a way that a 22-hunter unit at 95% isn't.
Deer
Utah's Limited Entry mule deer units are in a class of their own on success rates. The Henry Mountains, South Slope/Diamond Mountain, and Book Cliffs corridor all post figures in the 85–96% range with hunter counts that hold up statistically. These are legitimately excellent hunts; they just require meaningful point investments for non-residents: the Utah draw odds breakdown covers what the floors look like across all three species. The draw pressure on these units has been building as word has spread about the quality.
Wyoming deer success looks more modest on paper, but the units drawing over 70% here involve hundreds of hunters. Pole Mountain at 74% with 293 hunters is a very different data point than a small-quota unit at the same percentage. Colorado's GMU 021 (79%, 420 hunters) and GMU 070 (69%, 1,249 hunters) tell a similar story: high volume with consistently above-average success.
| State | Unit | 2024 | 2025 | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah LE | Henry Mountains | 96% (27) | 100% (26) | ↑ +4 pts | Famous for trophy mule deer; tight permit numbers |
| Utah LE | South Slope, Diamond Mtn | 96% (101) | 97% (64) | Stable | Solid sample size; consistently high |
| Utah LE | Book Cliffs, North | 91% (100) | 94% (125) | ↑ +3 pts | Sample grew 25% in 2025; trending up |
| Nevada | Unit 121 | 89% (35) | 74% (53) | ↓ −15 pts | Notable 2025 drop; NE NV top mule deer zone |
| Utah LE | West Desert, Vernon | 87% (147) | 85% (151) | Stable | Large sample; consistently performs |
| Utah LE | Book Cliffs (South) | 85% (26) | 100% (31) | ↑ +15 pts | Biggest improvement in dataset; Book Cliffs corridor trending up |
| Colorado | GMU 021 | 79% (420) | 79% (462) | Stable | Large sample; NE Colorado plains/breaks |
| Wyoming | Aspen Mountain (Unit 102) | 77% (147) | 89% (148) | ↑ +12 pts | South-central WY; big 2025 rebound |
| Wyoming | Pole Mountain (Unit 60) | 74% (293) | 69% (310) | ↓ −5 pts | SE Wyoming; accessible draw |
| Colorado | GMU 066 | 74% (465) | 69% (424) | ↓ −5 pts | High-volume; north-central CO |
| Nevada | Unit 031 | 74% (76) | 68% (78) | ↓ −6 pts | Elko County; reliable mid-size sample |
| Colorado | GMU 070 | 69% (1,249) | 66% (1,531) | Stable | Highest sample count in dataset; north-central CO |
Nevada Unit 031 at 74% with 76 hunters is worth flagging specifically. Nevada is consistently underrated in deer draw planning. The success rates are real, the draw pressure is lower than Utah or Wyoming on comparable units, and the point requirements are manageable for non-residents in the 4–7 range. It's not a glamour draw, but the numbers make a case.
Pronghorn
Wyoming dominates this species so completely that the state-by-state comparison feels slightly unfair. Wyoming's pronghorn herd is the largest in North America, the permit numbers are high, the terrain is purpose-built for the animal, and success rates across much of the state run in the 90–100% range with hunter counts in the hundreds or thousands. For pronghorn, Wyoming is simply in a different category.
The units at the top of the table (Shirley Basin, Bates Creek, Crook) have been consistent multi-year producers. Wyoming pronghorn showed a broad pullback in 2025, with most top units dropping 8–12 points from 2024. Even at those reduced rates, 84–90% success across hunter counts in the hundreds or thousands is still the best pronghorn hunting anywhere in the West. The question remains the same: terrain type and trophy quality, not whether you'll fill the tag.
| State | Unit | 2024 | 2025 | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming | Bates Creek (Unit 32) | ~100% (1,037) | 88% (1,216) | ↓ −12 pts | Largest sample in dataset; broad WY pullback in 2025 |
| Wyoming | Shirley Basin (Unit 47) | 96% (1,262) | 88% (1,466) | ↓ −8 pts | Highest hunter count in dataset |
| Wyoming | Lake De Smet (Unit 10) | 96% (198) | 84% (226) | ↓ −12 pts | Northeastern WY; quality animals |
| Wyoming | Crook (Unit 1) | 95% (313) | 90% (390) | ↓ −5 pts | NE corner; held up better than other WY units |
| Nevada | Units 065, 142, 144A | 95% (43) | — | — | Eureka County; 2025 data unconfirmed in SSA |
| Nevada | Unit 051 | 94% (47) | 80% (61) | ↓ −14 pts | Central NV; notable 2025 drop |
| Arizona | Unit 7 — General | 100% (31) | 93% (30) | ↓ −7 pts | Very high draw requirement; exceptional hunt |
| Arizona | Unit 1 — General | 92% (24) | 100% (32) | ↑ +8 pts | NW AZ; climbed to 100% in 2025 |
| Nevada (NR) | Units 043–046 | 100% (15) | — | — | NR-specific; 2025 data unconfirmed in SSA |
| Nevada (NR) | Units 061, 062, 064, 071, 073 | 100% (24) | — | — | NW NV; accessible at 4–7 NR pts; 2025 unconfirmed |
Nevada pronghorn for non-residents at 4–7 points and 94–100% success rates (2024 figures) in units like 043–046 and 061–073 is the combination this post was built to surface. Those units are unconfirmed in our 2025 data at this time, so treat the 2024 figures as the current reference. The draw accessibility hasn't changed. Hunters who get the tag fill it at rates comparable to premium Wyoming units, and most of the hunting community hasn't caught on yet. That's the kind of vein that doesn't stay quiet forever.
Draw odds tell you whether you can get in the door. Success rates tell you whether the door is worth opening. Those aren't the same question, and most hunters only ask the first one.
The Henry Mountains deer at 96% success isn't a secret: it takes points, and the wait is real for non-residents. What gets overlooked is the Nevada deer and pronghorn data sitting right next to it in this analysis, posting similar success rates at a fraction of the points. The market hasn't fully priced those in yet. When it does, the numbers will look different.
Pairing Success Data With Draw Accessibility
Success rate alone doesn't tell you which hunts to pursue. A 90% success unit that requires 25 non-resident points is a different planning exercise than one that draws at 6 points. The full picture requires both dimensions, and that's where the draw strategy hub and the individual state draw odds posts come in. Cross-referencing the two datasets gives you the combination most hunters don't think to calculate: how easy it is to get the tag AND how likely you are to fill it.
The broader draw strategy guide walks through how to sequence multi-state applications using both metrics (draw odds, success rates, and point costs) as part of a longer-range planning framework. If you're building points in multiple states simultaneously, that's the starting point.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is hunter success rate in hunting?
Hunter success rate is state-reported harvest data showing the percentage of licensed hunters who killed an animal during a given season. It is collected every year across the western states and broken down by unit and species. It tells you the expected payoff of a hunt, which draw odds alone do not.
Which western state has the best pronghorn success rates?
Wyoming, by a wide margin. It holds the largest pronghorn herd in North America, with success rates across much of the state historically in the 90 to 100 percent range and hunter counts in the hundreds or thousands. Even after a broad pullback in 2025, top Wyoming units still ran 84 to 90 percent success.
Why are Arizona elk success rates so high?
Arizona manages its elk hunts with very limited permit numbers and long, flexible seasons, which produces success rates that would look implausible elsewhere. Several Arizona elk hunts came in at or near 100 percent in 2024, and that is by design rather than a fluke.
Do high success rates mean a hunt is easy to draw?
No. Success rate and draw odds are separate measures. A hunt can be hard to draw and have high success, like the Henry Mountains deer at 96 percent, or be easier to draw with similar success, like several Nevada deer and pronghorn hunts. Pairing success data with draw accessibility is how you find the best-value hunts.
Know Your Unit Before You Commit Points
The Tag Report pairs draw floor data with harvest figures for your specific species, state, and point total, unit by unit. Know what you're getting before you put down another application. Nine ninety-nine per report.
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