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Western Big Game Draw Analysis

Harvest Data · Unit Analysis

The Western Units Where Hunters Fill Tags

A state-by-state look at hunter success rates for elk, deer, and pronghorn, with sample sizes worth trusting

By Point Creep Percival  ·  June 1, 2026  ·  10 min read

Most hunters plan around one number: draw odds. How competitive is the application? How many points does it take? Those questions matter, but they're only half the picture. The other half is what happens after you draw: how often do hunters who get that tag actually fill it?

Hunter success rate is state-reported harvest data: the percentage of licensed hunters who killed an animal during a given season. It's collected every year across all five western states, broken down by unit and species. And with some regularity, it surfaces combinations that are genuinely surprising. Some hunts have expected payoffs higher than the draw pressure would suggest, and a few are the opposite.

Draw results are back. If you drew, the question shifts to what your tag is actually worth. If you did not draw, there is more to work with than most hunters realize. The Zero to One Report maps every realistic hunting opportunity at zero and one points across all five states: leftover draw windows, OTC seasons, and first-come-first-served tags. Free, no email required, and it lives on the main page. Either way, the metric most hunters skip is hunter success rate.

This post covers standout units from two seasons of harvest data (2024 and 2025) across Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada. Tables show both years side by side with a year-over-year change column. A minimum hunter threshold filters out statistical noise. A unit with 12 hunters and 100% success does not tell you much. A unit with 400 hunters at 60% does.

Data notes: Tables show 2024 and 2025 state harvest figures side by side. Hunter counts appear in parentheses within each success rate cell. Utah figures are Limited Entry (LE) public-land units only; private CWMU operations are excluded. Wyoming pronghorn reports success rates above 100% in high-harvest areas due to multi-animal tag methodology; those units are treated as ~95–100%. Arizona deer harvest data is excluded from this analysis. Minimum hunter thresholds: WY/UT/CO/AZ = 20 hunters; NV = 15 hunters. Nevada entries showing a dash in the 2025 column could not be confirmed from current SSA data; 2024 figures are retained.

Elk

The gap between states on elk success is significant. Wyoming's average across units with meaningful hunter counts is around 41%. Colorado's is closer to 24%. That gap doesn't mean Wyoming is always the better hunt; it reflects the different character of the two states' elk populations, seasons, and hunt types. Worth keeping in mind when you're comparing tags across state lines.

Arizona is an outlier in any honest discussion of elk success rates. The state manages its elk hunts with very limited permit numbers and long, flexible seasons, which produces harvest rates that would look implausible anywhere else. Several Arizona elk hunts came in at or near 100% in 2024: that's not a fluke, it's by design.

Wyoming average: ~41% success. Top units cluster in the northeast (Powder River country) and in the higher-elevation zones of the Bighorn Basin. The Rochelle Hills, Pine Ridge, and Powder Rim areas consistently lead the state.
State Unit 2024 2025 Change Notes
Arizona Unit 1, 2B & 2C — General Bull 100% (183) 86% (207) ↓ −14 pts High-point NR draw; premium season
Utah LE Mt. Dutton 95% (22) 72% (25) ↓ −23 pts Notable 2025 drop; small sample both years
Wyoming Rochelle Hills (Unit 113) 87% (140) 87% (401) Stable NE Wyoming; 2025 sample nearly 3× larger
Utah LE Central Mtns, Manti 79–86% (22–115) 74–81% (23–122) Mixed ↓ Multiple weapon seasons; rifle season softened in 2025
Wyoming Pine Ridge (Unit 122) 82% (380) 74% (392) ↓ −8 pts High sample size; reliable figure
Wyoming Powder Rim (Unit 124) 82% (198) 82% (270) Stable Southwestern WY; held steady in 2025
Nevada Units 111–115 75–81% (53–59) — — NV's top elk zone; 2025 data unconfirmed in SSA
Wyoming Black Thunder (Unit 123) 77% (380) 61% (436) ↓ −16 pts Largest WY drop in dataset; watch 2026
Colorado GMU 002 64% (168) 66% (181) Stable High for CO; northeast corner
Colorado GMU 040 60% (518) 55% (545) ↓ −5 pts High sample; consistently above CO average
Colorado GMU 061 56% (1,296) 50% (1,384) ↓ −6 pts Largest sample in dataset; north-central CO

A few things worth noting in the elk data. Nevada Units 111–115 combining 75–81% success with moderate draw pressure is a real opportunity: if you have 7–12 non-resident points in Nevada, this zone is in range and the success rate is on par with premium Wyoming units. Colorado GMU 061 at 56% with 1,296 hunters is probably the most reliable single data point in the table: that sample size makes the number meaningful in a way that a 22-hunter unit at 95% isn't.

Trying to pair success rate data with your current points? The free guide covers how each state's draw system works and where points compound, a good reference before committing to a long build.
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Deer

Utah's Limited Entry mule deer units are in a class of their own on success rates. The Henry Mountains, South Slope/Diamond Mountain, and Book Cliffs corridor all post figures in the 85–96% range with hunter counts that hold up statistically. These are legitimately excellent hunts; they just require meaningful point investments for non-residents: the Utah draw odds breakdown covers what the floors look like across all three species. The draw pressure on these units has been building as word has spread about the quality.

Wyoming deer success looks more modest on paper, but the units drawing over 70% here involve hundreds of hunters. Pole Mountain at 74% with 293 hunters is a very different data point than a small-quota unit at the same percentage. Colorado's GMU 021 (79%, 420 hunters) and GMU 070 (69%, 1,249 hunters) tell a similar story: high volume with consistently above-average success.

State Unit 2024 2025 Change Notes
Utah LE Henry Mountains 96% (27) 100% (26) ↑ +4 pts Famous for trophy mule deer; tight permit numbers
Utah LE South Slope, Diamond Mtn 96% (101) 97% (64) Stable Solid sample size; consistently high
Utah LE Book Cliffs, North 91% (100) 94% (125) ↑ +3 pts Sample grew 25% in 2025; trending up
Nevada Unit 121 89% (35) 74% (53) ↓ −15 pts Notable 2025 drop; NE NV top mule deer zone
Utah LE West Desert, Vernon 87% (147) 85% (151) Stable Large sample; consistently performs
Utah LE Book Cliffs (South) 85% (26) 100% (31) ↑ +15 pts Biggest improvement in dataset; Book Cliffs corridor trending up
Colorado GMU 021 79% (420) 79% (462) Stable Large sample; NE Colorado plains/breaks
Wyoming Aspen Mountain (Unit 102) 77% (147) 89% (148) ↑ +12 pts South-central WY; big 2025 rebound
Wyoming Pole Mountain (Unit 60) 74% (293) 69% (310) ↓ −5 pts SE Wyoming; accessible draw
Colorado GMU 066 74% (465) 69% (424) ↓ −5 pts High-volume; north-central CO
Nevada Unit 031 74% (76) 68% (78) ↓ −6 pts Elko County; reliable mid-size sample
Colorado GMU 070 69% (1,249) 66% (1,531) Stable Highest sample count in dataset; north-central CO

Nevada Unit 031 at 74% with 76 hunters is worth flagging specifically. Nevada is consistently underrated in deer draw planning. The success rates are real, the draw pressure is lower than Utah or Wyoming on comparable units, and the point requirements are manageable for non-residents in the 4–7 range. It's not a glamour draw, but the numbers make a case.

Pronghorn

Wyoming dominates this species so completely that the state-by-state comparison feels slightly unfair. Wyoming's pronghorn herd is the largest in North America, the permit numbers are high, the terrain is purpose-built for the animal, and success rates across much of the state run in the 90–100% range with hunter counts in the hundreds or thousands. For pronghorn, Wyoming is simply in a different category.

The units at the top of the table (Shirley Basin, Bates Creek, Crook) have been consistent multi-year producers. Wyoming pronghorn showed a broad pullback in 2025, with most top units dropping 8–12 points from 2024. Even at those reduced rates, 84–90% success across hunter counts in the hundreds or thousands is still the best pronghorn hunting anywhere in the West. The question remains the same: terrain type and trophy quality, not whether you'll fill the tag.

State Unit 2024 2025 Change Notes
Wyoming Bates Creek (Unit 32) ~100% (1,037) 88% (1,216) ↓ −12 pts Largest sample in dataset; broad WY pullback in 2025
Wyoming Shirley Basin (Unit 47) 96% (1,262) 88% (1,466) ↓ −8 pts Highest hunter count in dataset
Wyoming Lake De Smet (Unit 10) 96% (198) 84% (226) ↓ −12 pts Northeastern WY; quality animals
Wyoming Crook (Unit 1) 95% (313) 90% (390) ↓ −5 pts NE corner; held up better than other WY units
Nevada Units 065, 142, 144A 95% (43) — — Eureka County; 2025 data unconfirmed in SSA
Nevada Unit 051 94% (47) 80% (61) ↓ −14 pts Central NV; notable 2025 drop
Arizona Unit 7 — General 100% (31) 93% (30) ↓ −7 pts Very high draw requirement; exceptional hunt
Arizona Unit 1 — General 92% (24) 100% (32) ↑ +8 pts NW AZ; climbed to 100% in 2025
Nevada (NR) Units 043–046 100% (15) — — NR-specific; 2025 data unconfirmed in SSA
Nevada (NR) Units 061, 062, 064, 071, 073 100% (24) — — NW NV; accessible at 4–7 NR pts; 2025 unconfirmed

Nevada pronghorn for non-residents at 4–7 points and 94–100% success rates (2024 figures) in units like 043–046 and 061–073 is the combination this post was built to surface. Those units are unconfirmed in our 2025 data at this time, so treat the 2024 figures as the current reference. The draw accessibility hasn't changed. Hunters who get the tag fill it at rates comparable to premium Wyoming units, and most of the hunting community hasn't caught on yet. That's the kind of vein that doesn't stay quiet forever.


Draw odds tell you whether you can get in the door. Success rates tell you whether the door is worth opening. Those aren't the same question, and most hunters only ask the first one.

The Henry Mountains deer at 96% success isn't a secret: it takes points, and the wait is real for non-residents. What gets overlooked is the Nevada deer and pronghorn data sitting right next to it in this analysis, posting similar success rates at a fraction of the points. The market hasn't fully priced those in yet. When it does, the numbers will look different.


Pairing Success Data With Draw Accessibility

Success rate alone doesn't tell you which hunts to pursue. A 90% success unit that requires 25 non-resident points is a different planning exercise than one that draws at 6 points. The full picture requires both dimensions, and that's where the draw strategy hub and the individual state draw odds posts come in. Cross-referencing the two datasets gives you the combination most hunters don't think to calculate: how easy it is to get the tag AND how likely you are to fill it.

The broader draw strategy guide walks through how to sequence multi-state applications using both metrics (draw odds, success rates, and point costs) as part of a longer-range planning framework. If you're building points in multiple states simultaneously, that's the starting point.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is hunter success rate in hunting?

Hunter success rate is state-reported harvest data showing the percentage of licensed hunters who killed an animal during a given season. It is collected every year across the western states and broken down by unit and species. It tells you the expected payoff of a hunt, which draw odds alone do not.

Which western state has the best pronghorn success rates?

Wyoming, by a wide margin. It holds the largest pronghorn herd in North America, with success rates across much of the state historically in the 90 to 100 percent range and hunter counts in the hundreds or thousands. Even after a broad pullback in 2025, top Wyoming units still ran 84 to 90 percent success.

Why are Arizona elk success rates so high?

Arizona manages its elk hunts with very limited permit numbers and long, flexible seasons, which produces success rates that would look implausible elsewhere. Several Arizona elk hunts came in at or near 100 percent in 2024, and that is by design rather than a fluke.

Do high success rates mean a hunt is easy to draw?

No. Success rate and draw odds are separate measures. A hunt can be hard to draw and have high success, like the Henry Mountains deer at 96 percent, or be easier to draw with similar success, like several Nevada deer and pronghorn hunts. Pairing success data with draw accessibility is how you find the best-value hunts.

Know Your Unit Before You Commit Points

The Tag Report pairs draw floor data with harvest figures for your specific species, state, and point total, unit by unit. Know what you're getting before you put down another application. Nine ninety-nine per report.

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