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State Draw Guide · The Assay Office

Arizona Draw Odds 2026
What the Numbers Say

Arizona runs every applicant through three passes every single year. A hunter with 3 bonus points accessed 57% of all NR deer tags in 2025. Here’s what the draw data actually shows for mule deer, Coues whitetail, elk, and pronghorn.

By Point-Creep Percival  ·  May 2026  ·  11 min read
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Arizona at a Glance

Draw System
Three-pass bonus point draw (Pass 1 = 20% by points, Pass 2/3 = weighted random)
NR Tag Cap
10% of available tags per hunt code, all species
Hunt Choices
5 choices per application; choices 3–5 only apply in Pass 3
Point Lapse
None. AZ points carry forward indefinitely
Application Windows
Two separate draws: elk & pronghorn close in early February; deer closes in early June. Verify at draw.azgfd.com.
NR Tag Totals (2025)
Deer: 2,321  |  Elk: 1,993  |  Pronghorn: 45
Bonus Point Types
Standard (zeroed on draw), Hunter Education (permanent, retained), Loyalty (earned after 5 consecutive years applying for a species, retained)
Group Applications
Allowed. Points averaged across group members (rounded to nearest whole number)

Arizona doesn’t hand tags to the highest bidder in a single pass. Its three-pass structure means a low-point hunter has a real shot at a tag in any given year, while high-point hunters still get a meaningful edge through the Bonus Pass. That’s a genuinely different design than Nevada’s squared-point formula or Wyoming’s hard preference floors, and it shows up in the draw rate data.

Two things stand out for NR hunters in the 2025 data. First, accessible bull elk opportunity in Arizona is narrower than the state’s reputation suggests. Unit 22N at 3 pts is the primary entry point: 22 NR tags, 18% success. Unit 22S at 5 pts is the secondary with 6 NR tags. After those two codes, the next bull opportunity doesn’t appear until 23+ pts, with the premium early codes sitting at 29–30 pts NR, up sharply from 22–23 pts in 2024. Second, Arizona offers both mule deer and Coues whitetail through the same draw, and Coues is a species most NR hunters don’t think about, which is an edge.

Draw Rate Overview

The table below shows what percentage of all NR tags (by volume) flowed through hunt codes where the Bonus Pass floor was at or below each point level. This is a system-level view, not individual draw odds for a specific code. A hunter with 7 bonus points could access 82% of all NR deer tags and 38% of NR elk tags by total tag count, meaning they’d be eligible to draw in codes covering that share of the NR tag pool. Whether they actually drew depends on applicant pressure at the code they chose.

PointsMule Deer / Coues (NR)Elk (NR)Pronghorn (NR) †
0 pts8%6%62% †
3 pts57%17%62% †
5 pts78%28%62% †
7 pts82%38%62% †
10 pts88%61%62% †
12 pts90%77%62% †
15 pts95%84%62% †
19 pts97%94%62% †
24 pts99%98%67%
25+ pts99%99%73%
† Pronghorn column: do not read as “accessible at 0 pts.” The 62% figure at 0–19 pts reflects that 28 of 45 total NR pronghorn tags were distributed through codes with no recorded NR Bonus Pass floor, meaning those tags went entirely through random Pass 2–3 selection, spread across 58 hunt codes averaging less than one NR tag per code. Only 6 pronghorn codes had any NR Bonus Pass floor recorded in 2025, and those required 22–33 pts. AZ pronghorn is effectively inaccessible below 22 points. See the pronghorn section below.
On NR vs. resident competition: A common assumption is that NR hunters face significantly higher point requirements than residents in Arizona. The 2025 data doesn’t support that as a blanket statement. The median gap between NR and resident Bonus Pass floors is small for most deer and elk codes, and some units show NR floors that are actually lower than resident floors. Unit 15A/15B/18A elk shows NR at 2 pts vs. resident at 10 pts; Unit 22 mule deer shows NR at 5 pts vs. resident at 12 pts. Where higher NR floors do appear, it’s typically on specific premium bull codes with concentrated NR demand. The system-level picture is more balanced than commonly assumed.

Mule Deer & Coues Whitetail

Arizona draws both mule deer and Coues whitetail through the same draw. They require separate tags, coded by unit and sub-species. Coues occupy the southeastern corner of the state (Units 22–36 range), while mule deer dominate central, western, and northern Arizona. For NR hunters, Coues are worth a closer look: they attract less out-of-state pressure than mule deer, and several units have NR Bonus Pass floors at 1–3 points with solid success rates. Most NR hunters don’t know what they’re looking at when they see a Unit 36 tag. That’s an edge.

The 2025 NR ceilings: mule deer at 16 pts, Coues at 18 pts, both notably lower than the elk ceiling. One meaningful year-over-year shift: Unit 27 mule deer jumped from 5 pts NR (2024) to 13 pts NR (2025), a +8 surge that moved it out of the accessible tier entirely. Accessible mule deer options below 5 pts thinned in 2025 compared to the prior year.

Accessible Coues Whitetail Units (1–3 pts NR), 2025

UnitNR FloorRes FloorNR Tags (per season)Success %Total Hunters
Unit 33 Muzzleloader1 pt1 pt2534%253
Unit 36B General2 pts2 pts42–7018–24%533–576
Unit 34A General2 pts2 pts27–5424–28%454–556
Unit 35B General2 pts2 pts23–4029–31%263–346
Unit 35A General2 pts2 pts33–3523–33%291–319
Unit 36A General2 pts2 pts21–3720–37%307–323
Unit 30A General2 pts2 pts15–1740–42%114–146
Unit 34B General3 pts2–3 pts8–1141–52%97–125
Unit 32 General3 pts3 pts21–2732–36%228–230
Unit 24A General3 pts3 pts14–2723–42%216–221
Unit 36C General3 pts2–3 pts1729–46%130–155
Unit 24B General3 pts3 pts7–1424–27%166–237
Standout picks: Unit 34B at 3 pts with 41–52% success is the best success-rate accessible Coues code. Unit 30A at 2 pts with 40–42% success on a solid sample is the strongest mid-tier option. Unit 33 muzzleloader at 1 pt is the lowest-floor entry, though success dropped from ~54% in 2024 to 34% in 2025, worth watching whether that holds. Unit 36B is the volume play, highest NR tag count at 2 pts.

Accessible Mule Deer Units (2–5 pts NR), 2025

UnitNR FloorRes FloorNR TagsSuccess %Total Hunters
Unit 30A General2 pts2 pts831%131
Unit 30B General3 pts2 pts1327%262
Unit 36B General3 pts3 pts730%93
Unit 06B General4 pts4 pts528%176
Unit 22 General5 pts12 pts1015%292
Accessible mule deer thinned in 2025. Unit 27 jumped from 5 pts NR to 13 pts NR year-over-year (+8) and is no longer in this tier. Unit 30B is now the highest-NR-tag accessible option at 3 pts with 13 tags and 27% success across 262 hunters. Unit 22 at 5 pts shows a notable NR-favorable gap (NR=5 vs. Res=12 pts) but 15% success is modest, volume over quality play at the 5-pt level. Overall, NR mule deer options below 5 pts are limited in 2025.

Figuring out which of these fits your point stack and timeline? The strategy guide has a framework for it.

Read the Strategy Guide

Competitive Mule Deer Units (12+ pts NR), 2025

UnitNR FloorRes FloorNR TagsSuccess %Total Hunters
Unit 27 General13 pts5 pts3358%429
Unit 06A General16 pts5 pts941%365

Unit 27 moved from accessible to competitive in 2025, it now requires 13 pts NR while the resident floor sits at just 5 pts, meaning NR hunters need significantly more points than residents for the same code. It still delivers 58% success with a 429-hunter sample, making it one of the better-value competitive mule deer options once you’re pointed up. Unit 06A at 16 pts runs a similar resident-favorable gap and delivers 41% success.

Elk

Arizona elk has a reputation as one of the more accessible big game draws in the West, and for residents that holds. For NR hunters building toward a bull tag, the picture is more specific. Accessible bull elk codes at 1–5 NR bonus points are thin: Unit 22N at 3 pts (22 NR tags, 18% success) is the primary option, and Unit 22S at 5 pts (6 NR tags, 17% success) is the secondary. That’s effectively it at the accessible end. Antlerless codes exist throughout the low-point range, but bull is what most NR applicants are building toward.

The NR elk ceiling in 2025 sits at 29–30 pts for the premium early bull codes. The general early-September bull code is new for 2025; the closest 2024 premium comparisons were muzzleloader early bull at 27 pts NR and archery early bull at 21. The 1/2B/2C general early bull drew at 29 pts NR in 2025. Plan accordingly if those are your targets.

Accessible Elk Units (1–5 pts NR), 2025

UnitNR FloorRes FloorNR TagsSuccess %Total Hunters
Unit 22N3 pts3 pts2218%171
Unit 22S5 pts3 pts617%52
Accessible AZ bull elk is a two-code tier. Unit 22N at 3 pts is the most accessible bull elk option in the state: 22 NR tags, 18% success. Unit 22S at 5 pts is the secondary option with 6 NR tags and similar success (17%). If a bull tag is the goal, these two codes are the door at low points. After 5 pts, the next bull opportunity jumps to the competitive tier at 23+ pts.
“Three points. Twenty-two bull tags. Eighteen percent. That’s Unit 22N, the narrowest door into AZ bull elk that exists at low points. It’s a real door. After that, you’re stacking toward 29. Start the clock, learn the country, and know which canyon you’re walking into when the time comes.”
— Point-Creep Percival

Competitive Elk Units (23+ pts NR), 2025

UnitHunt TypeNR FloorRes FloorNR TagsSuccess %Total Hunters
Unit 01/02B/02CEarly Bull29 pts25 pts397%32
Unit 10Early Bull30 pts24 pts483%29
Unit 9Early Bull26 pts17 pts955%77
Unit 10Early Bull25 pts14 pts1041%96
Unit 15A/15B/18AEarly Bull25 pts11 pts367%30
Unit 22NEarly Bull25 pts19 pts367%30
Unit 27Bull23 pts20 pts478%36
Unit 03A/04BAny Elk23 pts4 pts1159%29
Unit 03A/03CEarly Bull23 pts14 pts745%62
Unit 03BEarly Bull25 pts17 pts364%25

The 1/2B/2C early bull hunt (one combined hunt area, not three separate units) is the benchmark AZ elk tag: 29 pts NR, 97% success. Do not anchor on 2024: the general bull hunt that year was the late-November season, which drew at 18 pts NR, while the 2024 premium-early hunts were muzzleloader at 27 and archery at 21. The new general early code arrived priced at 29. If it is your long-range target, plan against that number. Unit 10 early bull at 30 pts / 83% success is the adjacent option. For hunters looking for the best entry into the competitive tier, Unit 27 bull at 23 pts with 78% success on a 36-hunter sample is the lower-point competitive pick. The Unit 03A/04B “any elk” code at 23 pts shows a striking resident-favorable gap (NR=23 vs. Res=4 pts), illustrating that NR-favorable and resident-favorable gaps both exist depending on the code.

Pronghorn

Bottom line: Arizona pronghorn is effectively a resident draw. Total statewide NR tags in 2025: 45, distributed across 64 hunt codes. Of those, 28 NR tags went through random Pass 2–3 selection on codes with no recorded Bonus Pass floor (averaging less than one NR tag per code). Only 6 codes had any NR Bonus Pass floor recorded, requiring 22–33 pts, with a ceiling of 33 pts at Unit 05B.

The 62% figure in the draw rate table at 0–19 pts reflects those random-draw codes, not accessible opportunity. With 45 total NR tags split across 64 codes, there is no strategic path into AZ pronghorn without decade-plus point accumulation, and even then, the total NR tag pool severely limits how many hunters can draw regardless of points held.

2025 codes with recorded NR Bonus Pass floors: Unit 1 Buck (22 pts, 23% success/26 hunters), Unit 10 Buck (25 pts, 33%/27 hunters), Unit 13B Buck (27 pts, 74%/19 hunters), Unit 10 Buck (29 pts, 85%/52 hunters), Unit 19A Buck (29 pts, 94%/18 hunters), Unit 05B Buck (33 pts, 95%/19 hunters). NR ceiling: 33 pts.

How the Arizona System Works

The Three-Pass Draw

Arizona’s draw runs through three sequential passes before any tag goes unfilled. Pass 1, the Bonus Pass, distributes up to 20% of available tags per hunt code by sorting applicants in descending bonus point order and filling from the highest point tier downward until that 20% is used. The lowest tier it reaches is that hunt’s bonus pass floor, and the random number only breaks ties inside a tier. Applications with zero bonus points are not included in Pass 1. Pass 2 handles the remaining 80% using applicants’ first and second hunt-code choices in a random draw weighted by points: each applicant holds one random number per bonus point, plus one. Pass 3 sweeps up any tags still unfilled using third, fourth, and fifth choices. A hunter who doesn’t win in Pass 1 is automatically re-entered in Pass 2, and again in Pass 3, no elimination between rounds.

The practical implication: your first and second hunt-code choices are your primary draw entries. Choices three through five are Pass 3 fallbacks on leftover tags after two full passes, useful, but not a strategy anchor. Don’t burn your top two choices on reach codes with near-zero NR tag allocations.

Points Don’t Lapse

Arizona has no lapse rule. Bonus points carry forward indefinitely regardless of how many years you skip applying, they only zero out when you draw a tag. Hunter Education (HE) points and Loyalty points (earned after five consecutive years of applying for a species) are retained even after drawing. This makes AZ a genuinely low-maintenance state to bank points in: no pressure to apply every year just to protect your stack.

Group Applications

Arizona allows group applications. Point totals are averaged across the group (total points divided by group size, rounded to the nearest whole number, with 0.5 rounding up) and the group competes at that averaged level. Mismatched point groups should think carefully about whether averaging serves their individual goals.

Application Windows

Arizona does not run one draw a year. It runs two separate cycles for the species covered here. Elk and pronghorn apply in the winter window, which typically opens in January and closes in early February, with results posted around mid-March. Deer, both mule deer and Coues whitetail, applies in a separate spring window that typically closes in early June, with results later that month. Verify the exact 2026 dates at draw.azgfd.com before submitting. NR applicants must hold a valid Arizona combo hunting and fishing license before applying.

2026 Arizona Draw Deadlines
  • Elk & pronghorn: Application window typically opens in January and closes in early February. Verify exact dates at draw.azgfd.com.
  • Deer (mule deer and Coues whitetail): A separate draw. Application window typically closes in early June. Verify exact dates at draw.azgfd.com.
  • Draw results: Elk and pronghorn around mid-March; deer in late June.
  • NR requirement: Valid Arizona combo hunting and fishing license required before applying.
Do not rely on prior-year dates, AZGFD adjusts timelines year to year. The only reliable source for 2026 dates is draw.azgfd.com.

Where Arizona Fits in Your Portfolio

Arizona earns its place in a western portfolio for a few reasons: thin but real accessible bull elk at 3–5 pts (Unit 22N and Unit 22S) before a steep climb to 29–30 pts for premium codes, Coues whitetail as a bonus species most NR hunters overlook, and no lapse rule making it a low-maintenance state to accumulate points in over time.

If you’re starting from zero, the Coues accessible units (2–3 pts) give you real draw shots within a few cycles. For elk, Unit 22N at 3 pts is the most accessible bull option (22 NR tags, 18% success) and Unit 22S at 5 pts is the secondary, after those two, the next bull opportunity sits at 23+ pts. Mule deer accessible options thinned in 2025, so expect more patience needed there. Pronghorn is a long-horizon project, start the clock now if it’s in your lifetime plan, but don’t build your near-term strategy around it.

If you’re building toward premium elk, the 2025 ceiling of 29–30 pts for early bull codes is the number to plan against. That’s a decade-plus of annual applications, and points don’t lapse, so the clock stops for no one who keeps applying. If you’re weighing which draw odds tool fits your situation, the draw odds tools comparison breaks down the major options side by side.

Comparing Arizona against Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming? The state-by-state draw odds posts cover all five.

Browse All State Guides
Data note: Draw rate table and unit callouts use 2025 Arizona draw data as the primary year (complete dataset across all three species). 2025 NR tag totals: Deer 2,321 | Elk 1,993 | Pronghorn 45. NR Bonus Pass floors shift year to year based on applicant pressure, Unit 27 mule deer is a recent example, moving +8 pts in a single year. Verify current application dates at draw.azgfd.com before submitting. All floors and success rates from AZ Historical Draw JSON sourced from official AZGFD draw odds reports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Arizona’s three-pass draw system work?
Arizona runs three sequential passes each year. Pass 1 (the Bonus Pass) distributes up to 20% of tags per hunt code in descending bonus point order, filling from the highest point tier down until that 20% is used, so the deepest point stacks are served first and applications with zero bonus points are not included in it. Pass 2 handles the remaining 80% using first and second hunt-code choices in a random draw weighted by points (one random number per bonus point, plus one). Pass 3 sweeps up remaining tags using third, fourth, and fifth choices. Hunters not winning in Pass 1 automatically re-enter Pass 2, and again Pass 3, there is no elimination between rounds.
When is the 2026 Arizona draw deadline?
Arizona runs two separate draws. Elk and pronghorn close in early February, with results around mid-March. Deer, both mule deer and Coues whitetail, is a separate draw that closes in early June, with results later that month. Verify exact 2026 dates at draw.azgfd.com, AZGFD adjusts timelines year to year. A valid Arizona combo hunting and fishing license is required before submitting an application as a nonresident.
Can a nonresident draw Arizona elk with few bonus points?
Yes, but accessible bull elk codes are limited. Unit 22N is the primary option at 3 NR bonus points: 22 NR tags, 18% success in 2025. Unit 22S at 5 pts has 6 NR tags and 17% success. Antlerless elk codes exist throughout the 1–5 pt range, but most NR hunters building a western portfolio are targeting bull tags. The premium early bull codes, the 1/2B/2C combined hunt area and Unit 10, drew at 29–30 NR bonus points in 2025. The comparable 2024 premium-early hunts were muzzleloader at 27 points and archery at 21; the 18-point figure sometimes cited was the 2024 late-November general hunt.
Do Arizona bonus points expire if I miss a year?
No. Arizona bonus points carry forward indefinitely with no lapse rule. Missing a year does not affect your point total. Points only reset when you successfully draw a tag. Hunter Education and Loyalty points are retained even after drawing, giving you a permanent head start over a true zero-point applicant after each successful draw.
Can nonresidents realistically draw Arizona pronghorn?
Not on any near-term timeline. Only 45 total NR pronghorn tags were distributed statewide in 2025, across 64 hunt codes. Just 6 codes had a recorded NR Bonus Pass floor, requiring 22–33 NR points. The remaining 28 NR tags went through random draw across 58 codes averaging less than one NR tag per code. AZ pronghorn is a decade-plus point accumulation project for most nonresidents.

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